File Format Fatigue Sets In

On the eve of ISO's notorious BRM week in Geneva (when national standards bodies try to find reasons to pass Microsoft's format, OOXML, as an international standard like ODF v1.0), we are visited by a strange call for truce from the ODF side's Patrick Durusau -- Sun's employed editor of the OASIS ODF v1.2 (and friend of the erstwhile interop player & my very own, the once and ever, OpenDocument Foundation, the Foundation having joined the august company of Disgruntled OASIS ODF TC Alumnae including Arbortext, Boeing, Corel, Speedlegal, Stellent|BEA|Oracle & others who tired of beating their heads against Jonathan Schwartz's erected brick wall).

Perhaps the most telling part is that Patrick chose to publish his letter in Adobe's PDF fixed file format, so thoroughly has the ODF v OOXML debate deteriorated into distraction from the main point -- which was and still is interoperability ... or rather the lack of it: the inability of word-processors of different vendors, vintages and varieties to open, read and edit files with business-process-level fidelity ... like e-mail and web pages. (The need is for a true interchange format -- what we've called a Universal Document Format for editable documents. Peter Seebach gets right to the point in "OOXML: What's the big deal?" | IBM Developerworks | 19 Feb 2008)

PDF is the real winner here.



click the image for Adobe's James King's insights: "Bits & Pieces"...

At least we have that: a great & useful, open-enough & archive-able fixed document format with aesthetic document layout-presentation nous. This alongside the other news that Blue-ray has won out definitively against HD DVD in the hi-def video medium war. There's reassurance in at least some finality -- somewhere.

Not so lucky are we here in the document format war -- where all conclusions are certain to be inconclusive and the uncertainty has a 50-percent chance of carrying the years 2008 AND 2009.

Patrick's letter, among other things, is a loser's cry for help (with CV attached) because even the EU-sponsored harmonization directive on ISO to work with the German standards body, DIN, parented by the Fraunhoffer braintrust to report on the harmonization potential of ODF & OOXML is proving a waste of time, the directive likely about to produce the conclusion that merging ODF & OOXML is a technical impossibility even if the sponsoring applications -- OpenOffice.org & Microsoft Office -- are harmonized too (a commercial impossibility given how tightly Microsoft, Sun & IBM covet the office application market shares).

The calls for civility, patience, calm & restraint appeal nicely to all parties at this point, tired of personal attacks, misdirection, mud-slinging, character assassination, vitriol & pointless emotionalism. The calls appeal to Microsoft most of all, which moves forward in its new phase of dominance of the web with a brilliant ramp of the truly brilliant & actually innovative Office 2007 product suite -- which implants a version anyway of the OOXML format which is the questionable case before ISO.

Eyes and ears with any interest in new balance in software markets must now ignore everything on the table in the Document Format War as it is being dished today, must look ahead -- skate to the puck (as Gary Edwards says) -- to documents and the Internet.

Here, the only place to look is the W3C. But given the high stakes in owning formats, there's a real risk that the argy-bargy visited by the vendors upon us in the ODF-OOXML Cycle (2005 - 2008) will encumber, subsume & overwhelm the W3C in future days.

Let's hope not, for documents ought to be open & free if we are to have data-sovereignty and if basic applications are ever going to work for us(ers).

WB for Blu-ray

Looks like Warner Brothers has tipped the Hi-Def DVD War in favor of Sony's Blu-ray format against the Toshiba | Microsoft HD-DVD format. However, market data indicates Blu-ray has been establishing a big lead since the beginning.

Variety | 4 Jan 2008 ...

Warner Bros. all but signed the death warrant for HD DVD on Friday, when it dropped its format-neutral approach to back Blu-ray exclusively.

Nielsen VideoScan data show Blu-ray's dominant 61% share since the formats' inception growing to 66% for the first three quarters of 2007, before the WB news ...


courtesy of EngagetHD

The major studios lining up behind Blue-ray include ...

  • Sony
  • Fox
  • Disney
  • Lionsgate
  • Warner Brothers
  • New Line
  • HBO

Warner Bros. exclusive commitment to Blu-ray means about 70% of movies now will be released in that format, leaving Paramount, Universal & DreamWorks as the only major studios with exclusive commitments to HD-DVD.

"Sony DVD move deals blow to Microsoft" | Financial Times | Richard Waters, Paul Taylor & Marico Sanchanta from CES in Las Vegas | 6 Jan 2008

Evidently the studios have been concerned about buyer "confusion" between the two HD formats ...

"By us being both, we were playing into consumer confusion," [Warner Home entertainment's] Tsujihara said. "There's a window of opportunity with first-time buyers of HD TVs to also buy a high-def player at the same time," he added.

"The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger," Warner Bros. chairman-CEO Barry Meyer seconded.

... and also about the cost of supporting two HD standards at a time when the overall DVD market has been tanking under assault from the evolving refinement of the segmentation of media delivery channels  from cable TV's Video-On-Demand and Pay-per-View options we see on our cable guides to the cheaper and efficient online movie rental model of Netflix.

Tsujihara's comment is interesting in light of my public prediction last Christmas (2006) that HD flat screen TV's were about to enter the key middle-market price points below $1,000.

People are inclined to lament the fall-off in old forms of media, from newspapers, to feature films, to pornography, to book publishing; however, it's clear that new channels, formats and distribution models -- particularly digital -- are helping media across the board take on its more natural shape. If this is generally lower-cost and lower-quality content like the user-generated content of blogs and YouTube, then that is the more natural state of media given so many eyeballs and hours per day, and the costlier and higher-quality content is more precious if less widely valued across the populations.

How much does the failure of HD-DVD reflect a conscious rejection of Microsoft, I wonder?

Game Console Pricing

Lines went around the block in Tokyo on November 11th as they did on November 17th here in New York for the launch of Sony's PlayStation 3. But today the GameStop on Manhattan's Upper West Side is subdued and no arbitrage opportunities remain for sellers on eBay as prices there have reverted to retail.

The media are playing the Sony recovery story (see The Economist, below) and have noted how the pricing differential between the players reflects the different embedding strategies of each conglomorate.


(click for story)

PlayStation 3 ("PS3") offers gamers the premium gaming experience (in two configurations, $100 apart) and provides Sony a way to embed the new Blue-ray DVD standard into lots of households. Each of the earlier iterations, PlayStation & PlayStation 2, had sold over 100 million units in their time. This sets the long-term expectation for PS3.

xBox 360-- which got out the door over a year ago and has sold well -- offers Microsoft a way to embed more or less of a networked PC in the family fun space.

Nintendo's Wii seems to have the most clever insertion strategy of all. Low-priced Fun! (MBAs will take note in their day-planners.)

Game_console_pricing

 

Source: Hiser Sneaker Research

I grokked the price reduction for PlayStation 2. The **NewImproved** pricing of PS2 makes way for the hot new PS3. Gamers will probably have a high utility for PS2 for a while, value-priced at $129. This betters the cost of a few Frappacinos by only a hairsbreadth. And, for Sony, these late PS2 sales are all profit.

What's Blue-ray?

If you've become interested as I have in the emerging next-generation video standards contest, here's a good place to start: Blue-ray.com. The site from the Blue-ray Disc Association (BDA) covers the basics on the one side of the battle line.

The other major contender is HD DVD, backed by a group of companies and studios through the DVD Forum. I'll be covering that soon.

The strategies & tactics on display in this important entertainment standards war will be a great show. Sony will not want to be Betamax'd again and will be on its metle. Opponents may have learned just as much as Sony, however; so it will be a competitive match this time around.

Among the key technicals behind Blue-ray is its use of a blue-violet laser rather than a red laser (used for CD and DVD). The blue laser's shorter wavelength permits data to be packed more densely on the disc medium, providing the higher capacity necessary to fit movie-length content in a High-Definition format (more data) on a single disc.

Old | CD/DVD | Red Laser | 650 nanometers | 5GB
New | Blue-ray | Blue Laser | 405 nanometers | 25GB

Giving Blue-ray a blue-chip feel, 170 companies are backing it, including the following...

  • Apple
  • Dell
  • Hitachi
  • hp
  • JVC
  • LG
  • Mitsubishi
  • Panasonic
  • Pioneer
  • Philips
  • Samsung
  • Sharp
  • Sony
  • TDK; and
  • Thomson


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